No One’s Hedging the Handshake

Assessing risk premia with Russia/Ukraine.

The latest Trump-Putin meeting and ongoing discussions with Ukraine and NATO have yet to yield either a ceasefire or a firm end to the multi-year war.

Yet even if progress is looking more optimistic now than before, the question comes as to how (and if) to position for this in FX or rates. Put another way, is there any war risk premia still being captured in key currencies, or has the market moved on?