APFX Research

APFX Research

The BoJ Can’t Be the Buzzkill

Japan’s recovery needs time, not higher rates.

Oct 29, 2025
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During his visit to Japan this week, President Trump was seen signing hats reading “Japan is Back.”

With new PM Takaichi now getting her feet under the table, a push for looser monetary policy is likely going to start. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on Thursday, we think it’s unlikely they will hike now or at the December meeting.

Yet with the December TONA contract (JOAZ5) implying 12bps of hikes, there’s a trade to be made here.

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