Three Curves, One Message

Relief is being priced, but not easing.

The key message from US, EU, and UK curves is not dovishness. Markets have taken some heat out of near-term policy pricing over the past week, but they are still refusing to underwrite a clean return to a hold-or-ease regime.

Across all three regions, front-end implied rates have shifted lower versus a week ago. But the shape of the curves still points to policy staying restrictive, and in some cases becoming more restrictive, for longer. Markets are marking down the immediacy of the inflation shock rather than declaring victory over inflation. That distinction matters because it changes how we should read the next move in rates.

What we are seeing is a selective repricing of hawkish tail risk, not a wholesale duration rally. Curves still carry the imprint of inflation credibility risk, fiscal supply pressure and term premium rebuilding. The country split matters.

United States: Less Hike Insurance, Not a Clean Duration Rally