APFX Research

APFX Research

When $20bn Isn't Enough

ARS weakness and other EM ideas.

Oct 01, 2025
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The Argentine peso (ARS) closed Q3 with a thud, sliding 6% against the dollar on Tuesday. That follows a sharp rally earlier in the month after US Treasury Secretary Bessent dangled a $20bn lifeline.

The violent swings are a reminder of how unstable EM FX remains, and why the asset class will stay front and centre into year-end.

Layer in Brazil’s carry backdrop, India’s long-end dynamics, and rising political risk, and the mix looks primed for selective EM rates and FX trades to deliver.

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